“Standing with Ukraine” Doesn’t Mean What We Think It Does
Russia’s 2022 illegal invasion of Ukraine outraged the world. Imperialist Russia had no good reason for violating the sovereignty of a much smaller country, and the world’s response was to “stand with Ukraine” with military aid. This appears to be a just cause in defense of democracy and freedom. In reality, it is a dangerous war that could end in nuclear annihilation. Few are explaining that connection to the public. We must understand the real causes of this war, and overcome our hostility to Russia, if we hope to get out of it alive.
If we are intent on ending Russia’s brutal assault on Ukraine, which at this point has killed about two million people, both sides combined, we have to engage in diplomacy. Engaging in diplomacy means listening to the other side’s perspective, even if you do not agree with it. It means acknowledging Russia’s motivations, and taking responsibility for our instigation and fueling of the conflict. Most people have been unwilling/unable to do this. You don’t have to agree with Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine to understand that that the provocations were considerable. Understanding the cause of the war does not adopt Russian propaganda. This is a low bar to clear; most people trip over it.
A big clue that the narrative about the war being provoked is that it is unwelcome in mainstream media, which reports in the service of the state. Context is often omitted. This narrative threatens the state because it reveals what our government did, so it makes efforts not to publicize it. Journalists like Aaron Mate and academic Glenn Diesen are labeled as Russian propogandists. During the Biden administration, former UN Weapons Inspector, Scott Ritter, was raided by the FBI, which confiscated his passport, for being a Russian agent. Why is it so hard to see that our government would lie to us about a war that we share responsibility for? We’ve done it before, with Iraq now being the most widely understood example of the media’s complicity in war.
We are frequently told the invasion was unprovoked. This is a not true. It was very much provoked, by us. George Beebe, former director of the CIA’s Russia analysis, has stated that for decades, we have known that NATO expansion into Ukraine would be seen as an act of war by Russia. This predates Putin. In 2014 the CIA backed a coup in Kiev, which put extremists in power who now function as puppets of the West. CIA and NATO facilities have been constructed throughout Ukraine, and missiles deployed in Poland and Romania with a two to three-minute flight time to Moscow. The CIA and NATO backed the Ukrainian army in attacking Russian communities in Donbas, leading to a civil war in which roughly 15,000 civilians died before the 2022 Russian invasion. All this is quite a provocation. In December 2021, Russia presented the United States with a non-aggression pact in an attempt to avoid a nuclear war. We dismissed it. Russian invaded Ukraine three months later.
We say we are arming Ukraine to aid them in fighting for their sovereignty. In reality we are using them as a tool to weaken Russia because we don’t want to fight the war ourselves. But it is an unnecessary war. For us it is a war of choice. For Russia and Ukraine, it is existential.
Russia is in Ukraine because it does not want a country that is party NATO, a military organization that is committed to the destruction of Russia on its doorstep, not because it seeks to take occupy all of Ukraine or recreate the Soviet Union. Continuing to arm Ukraine does not address the security concerns of Russia, and does not end the conflict. It only keeps the war going, something Ukrainian and NATO leadership and arms manufacturers are very much interested in, as they are profiting from it. The tech bros are loving this war, as it provides a testing ground for new weaponry. Palantir is very much committed to the Ukrainian cause.
Currently, Europe is even more actively anti-Russian than the United States. Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, continually talks of going to war with Russia because Russia is threatening Europe. In reality, the threats are coming from Europe, and Russia is responding to them. NATO airspace is currently being traversed to send missiles from Ukraine into Russia. This is an extraordinarily dangerous situation. Should Russia respond by bombing a country in Europe, NATO could choose to invoke Article 5 of its charter, in which case, all-out war could break out, which could quickly escalate to a nuclear conflict.
We are getting closer than ever to nuclear disaster. Last year, Trump misunderstood a tweet by Dimitri Medvedev and responded by “repositioning” Ohio Class Submarines in relation to Russia. This could have triggered a response, but Putin chose not to do anything. Other risky actions have been the inclusion of dual-use weapons on the Ukrainian battlefield. Trump has flirted with sending Tomahawk missiles to Zelensky, and Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium are sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Dual use weapons can be used conventionally, or they can carry a nuclear warhead. This risk is that Russia would be unable to tell if it were or were not nuclear-equipped, thus triggering its nuclear doctrine- if a single nuke reaches Russian soil, Russia will respond with all-out nuclear war. When Putin explains its nuclear posture to the West, we interpret it as a threat, but it is also a stern warning. We should not continue to poke the bear
Most of today’s European leaders do not have firsthand experience of war, do not understand it, and do not have a healthy fear of it. Sergei Karaganov has called for a nuclear strike on Europe to restore deterrence. His thinking is that a nuclear strike would snap them into reality, as they continue their provocations and assume Russia is bluffing, that it will not respond. The problem with this logic is that it assumes these people are rational actors; they are not. Like the United States, their only tool seems to be that of escalation. They will meet an attempt at dialogue with force, and they will meet force with force. Europe is preparing for war with Russia by 2030. As things continue to escalate, it’s hard to see us making it that far. Journalist Dimitry Lascaris predicts a conflict to start by the end of this year. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently stated Russia’s patience with the West is at an end. Terrifying.
The most disturbing result of our lack of will, and ability, to dialogue with Russia is the collapse in arms control. The New START Treaty, the last remaining arms control treaty between the two countries, expired in February of this year. In the name of government efficiency, Marco Rubio let go all the arms control specialists. Putin suggested we both abide by the terms of the treaty for an additional year to buy time to negotiate a new one. Trump did not take him up on it. We are now in a new arms race, and the vibe in Washington is a push for arms proliferation.
According to Glenn Diesen, we are closer to nuclear war than we were during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The world’s security structure is fragile. Europe is not the only flashpoint. In response to conventional weapons depletion due to the war on Iran, we have altered our nuclear posture. Now, should we find ourselves in a new conflict, we would be able to lead with a tactical nuclear weapon. Every war game the Pentagon plays with a nuclear first strike has resulted in an all-out, world-ending nuclear war.
Most American leadership does not appear to understand the perilous state we are in. They have bunkers, many of the ultra-wealthy do as well, but how long do they believe they will survive in them? A nuclear war ends us as a species, and obliterates all ecosystems. If they make it in there in time, they will never come out. Will they eventually find themselves in a situation, years down the road, where they have run out of food and water and are reduced to eating their own shoes? One would think that out of pure self-interest, our politicians would do everything possible to prevent such a scenario.
The reality of a nuclear war ending all life on Earth looms. The thought of our planet being reduced to another rock in the solar system that is unable to support life is shattering. Because politicians are unaware of reality and do not carry the full weight of their decisions, we carry it instead. They are unaware of the psychological violence they do to those of us who understand that although we are not in a war zone, a bomb could drop at any moment. Personally, being terrified all the time is exhausting. Living without hope is devastating. Coping with the thought of the end of all life is impossible. It is more than the human mind can bear. It colors all I see. It is breaking me.
Politicians with the power to save us should be experiencing this suffering, but they are not. They are unaware of where they are leading us with the war in Ukraine. All the wars of choice we have started have resulted in blowback on our end. So far, we have survived, but this time, it seems unlikely. Because we misunderstand the true nature of the Ukraine war, we do not know who the real enemy is. It is not a fight between Ukraine and Russia. It is a battle of nuclear weapons against humanity.